Global warming threatens the future of the earth. Act now, before it is too late.
The Arctic melts, as does the Greenland ice shelf. California burns, as did the forests of Greece. The poor of Mozambique and Bangladesh drown, as did those of New Orleans. The farmers of central Africa, whose fields are turning into desert, are exposed to starvation, exile and war. Much worse may be coming. Scientists have warned that the deadline for reversing the steady increase in greenhouse gas emissions may be as early as 2012, if we are to avoid the planetary catastrophe of warming in excess of two degrees centigrade. But in December 2007, while the rain forests of Sumatra and the Amazon – the lungs of the earth – were being destroyed, representatives of 180 states conferred in Bali without result on the steps to be taken after 2012. A month later, comprehensive plans of the European Union to limit the damage were watered down after intense pressure from industrial lobbies fearful of their international competitive position.
A catastrophe is unfolding. It is already happening, it is accelerating and broadening. What can be done to avert it?
September, 2009
Our Appeal, written in January 2008, was given increased urgency in April 2008 by new research data about sea levels in the past released, among others, by climate scientist and NASA research director James Hansen. Hansen was one of the main proponents of the 2° C limit and, related, the limit of 450 ppm for the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (or roughly 400 ppm for CO2 alone) – the stabilization goal cited in most recent plans and negotiations. Concerned by the likelihood of a major rise in sea levels at 2° C as well as the chances to surpass the 2° C limit at the indicated levels, Hansen has for the past year and half proposed a maximum stabilization level of 350 ppm for CO2, a goal endorsed on August 25, 2009 (in a personal capacity) by Rajenda Pachauri, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Supporting a more rigorous goal, the Synthesis Report of the Climate Change Congress held in Copenhagen in March 2009 stated: “According to the IPCC analysis, atmospheric CO2 concentration should not exceed 400 ppm CO2 if the global temperature rise is to be kept within 2.0 – 2.4°C. Today, the CO2 concentration is around 385 ppm, and is rising by 2 ppm per year. The 2007 concentration of all greenhouse gases, both CO2 and non-CO2 gases...[adjusted]... for the cooling effects of aerosols yields a CO2-equivalent concentration of 396 ppm. A recent study estimates that a concentration of 450 ppm CO2-equivalents (including the cooling effect of aerosols) would give a 50-50 chance of limiting the temperature rise to 2°C or less” (download the report).
In short, if we wish to avoid a climate that will make most of our planet uninhabitable for the human species within roughly a century from now, we must demand of the negotiators in Copenhagen in December 2009 drastic goals and effective measures for the rapid reduction of GHG emissions.